The timing is particularly delicate for Obama, who travels to Europe and then Peru this week in a final foreign trip capped by a conference of the very foreign leaders who negotiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Obama is fulfilling the commitment he made at the start of his presidency to attend the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, a demonstration of his commitment to “pivot” US policy toward Asia — of which the TPP is the embodiment of his economic efforts.
The initiative to shore up US influence and secure job-creating economic ties with Pacific countries was painstakingly negotiated over several years with 11 other countries together comprising 40% of the world economy. The implications of its demise for US standing in Asia and its allies there could be profound.
Proponents saw the TPP as a multifaceted agreement knitting the US into the world’s fastest-growing economies while setting US standards for trade, labor and the environment. It also served strategic and security goals of strengthening alliances against China’s regional ambitions and North Korea’s burgeoning nuclear program.
Those broad ambitions ran aground against the populist, anti-trade sentiment that swept the US election campaign amongst both Democrats like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Republicans.
Trump’s hostility to trade deals — a pillar of US engagement with Asia — and his campaign proposals to change longstanding alliances there had already unnerved the region. Now, the TPP’s dire prospects will further deepen questions about America’s long-term commitment to Asia and reduce its economic clout there, Asian leaders and analysts said.
“For America’s friends and partners, ratifying TPP is a litmus test of your credibility and seriousness of purpose,” said Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during a visit to Washington this month.
Trump was clear about his stance on the pact. He offered more detail about his anti-trade stance during the campaign than almost any other issue, calling the TPP “another disaster done and pushed by special interests who want to rape our country.”
Wendy Cutler,a former acting deputy US trade representative and key negotiator of the deal, said that beyond the damage to US leadership, there are economic costs to cancelling the pact.
With the vast number of consumers who buy US goods live outside the country, she said, ripping up trade deals with five of the fastest growing nations in the world doesn’t help generate growth or create jobs at home.
“Globalization is here to stay,” said Cutler, whonow runs theAsia Society Policy Institute’s Washington office, speaking at a discussion hosted by Georgetown UniversityThursday. “No one can stop it.”
Cutler hopes that Trump will come to realize the benefits TPP would bring both to the US economy and US power once he assumes office.
“It’s easy on the campaign trail to criticize the achievements of the previous administration,” she said. “But once you’re in the White House, what seemed to be a black-and-white issue is now very complicated.”
Green, the former Bush adviser, noted that Trump’s frequent refrain on the campaign trail was not that that he opposed trade but that he would negotiate better deals. Given that, Green believes there could be hope for Trump to renegotiate the deal down the road, given the number of people in his party who are pro-trade.
“I think TPP is in a deep sleep,” Green said, “but I don’t think it’s dead.”